Two weeks ago, Miami’s hopes of a BCS bowl game seemed to have disappeared the moment Clemson’s Jacoby Ford’s foot hit the end zone, handing the Canes defeat number two. All seemed lost as we pondered a trip to the Gator Bowl. However, I’m here to preach to anyone willing to listen, all is not lost. There’s still hope. Despite two loses, despite barely beating an ugly Wake team, these baby Canes could still end up in a BCS game. In reality, there are two ways.

WAY TO THE BCS, TAKE ONE

Win the ACC title. Obviously, this is unlikely. Miami needs the Yellow Jackets to lose one of their final two conference games, while Miami finishes the season undefeated. This would create another log jam with (most likely) three two-loss teams (Miami, Ga Tech, Va Tech). Assuming the Jackets lost to either Wake or Duke, they would certainly fall back behind Miami in the BCS standings. The Canes would win the tiebreaker and play the winner of the Atlantic Division.

Sadly, although Wake Forest has improved and Duke is no longer a guarantee ‘W’, Tech should have no problem defeating both.

WAY TO THE BCS, TAKE TWO

Let’s pretend Georgia Tech wins out, leaving Miami out of the ACC title game (and for good measure, we’re going to assume that Tech would win that game as well). That means the locks for the BCS would be:

BCS TITLE GAME: TEXAS VS. FLORIDA/ALABAMA - Only LSU really has the power to throw a wrench in this scenario.
ROSE: IOWA VS. OREGON - It doesn’t matter if Iowa goes undefeated, a one-loss SEC team would still beat them out for the title game.
ORANGE: CINCINNATI VS. GEORGIA TECH - Would anyone watch this?
SUGAR: FLORIDA/ALABAMA VS. TCU - Poor Boise State…undefeated still won’t be enough.

This leaves the Fiesta Bowl. The only tie-in for the Fiesta is the BIG 12 champion, but the Longhorns will be down in sunny Southern California getting ready to face either Florida or Alabama (personally, I’m picking Bama). These means the boys at the Fiesta can pick anyone they want…including Miami.

There are ten potential teams that find themselves in the Fiesta Bowl hunt, but let’s be honest, this is college football, where the little fella’s get little love. In reality, five teams other than Miami have a legit shot at this. Let’s take a look, shall we?

1. PENN STATE - Everyone loves Joe Pa and the Fiesta would love to have him strolling the sidelines January 4th. Obviously, they’d rather be in the Rose Bowl, but they would either need Iowa to lose two games (not going to happen) or somehow have the Hawkeyes sneak into the title game (certainly not going to happen). This week the Lions will face Ohio State (at home). A win will almost guarantee a BCS bowl game for Penn State.

2. USC – The men of Troy are the highest ranked two-loss team, although I’m not sure why. They lost to a 3-5 team and were just beaten by Oregon by 37 points. The margin of defeat is the largest among any of the teams on this list. They’re ranked 12th and will have a legit shot at the Fiesta simply because A) They’re USC, B) they were ranked top-five at the beginning of the season, and C) they’re USC.

3. NOTRE DAME – Yep, you know it. If the Irish can go on the road and beat No 13 Pittsburgh and Stanford, they’ll be 10-2 and BCS bowl eligible. You know and I know that the NCAA would cream themselves if Notre Dame can be in the Fiesta.

4. BOISE STATE - Some people have talked about a “Boise State/TCU” BCS game, pitting the two undefeated mid-majors against each other. Don’t bother. They faced off last year in a bowl game…now raise your hand if you watched it. Listen, having these small schools in the big games is fun, just go back and watch the Boise State victory over Oklahoma a few years back in the Fiesta. However, for this to happen, the Broncos will need some of these teams on this list to fall.

5. LSU - It’s doubtful, but possible. The Tigers, who have been the red-headed step child in the SEC this year because of Florida and Alabama. Yet the Tigers are 7-1 and sitting in the top 10. If they can knock off Alabama this week (doubtful), then they might have a shot at the BCS. But in reality, if LSU then loses to Florida a second time, don’t look for the Fiesta to come calling.

NO SHOT, GIVE UP NOW

OHIO STATE - Technically, if they beat Penn State and Iowa, they’ll make it to the Rose Bowl (to the dismay of everyone outside the state lines of Ohio). However, if they lose to one of them, that’s three loses and no BCS game.
PITTSBURGH – Even if they beat Notre Dame, their BCS hopes live and die when they take on Cincinnati. They beat the Bearcats and win the Big East, the Panthers will go to the Orange. They lose, no more BCS.
UTAH - Sorry, this isn’t basketball. The Utes had to go undefeated if they wanted to play in the BCS playground.
HOUSTON - Same as Utah.
ARIZONA – If they beat Oregon and USC (not going to happen), they’d find themselves in the Rose Bowl. Lose once and their BCS dreams die.

So where do we stand?

The biggest problem Miami has is the simple fact that they are currently ranked below four of the five teams on this list. Now rankings don’t mean everything when a BCS is looking for a play date, but it certainly helps. The Canes will need to not only win out (which isn’t a guarantee), they’ll have to somehow leapfrog a few others. In reality, the dream match up for the Fiesta is probably Penn State vs. USC, but a lot still needs to happen before we get to this.

So what kind of help do the Canes need?

First, it would be great if Ohio State can knock off Penn State this weekend. Second, it would be helpful if someone, anyone can hand Notre Dame one more defeat. If we’re going to assume LSU will not beat both Alabama and Florida (if they beat Bama), then the Fiesta Bowl has to pick between undefeated Boise State and four two-loss teams (Miami, USC, Penn State, LSU and Notre Dame). You might have to include a one-loss Iowa team if they somehow lose the Rose Bowl to Ohio State.

So if you’re the Fiesta Bowl, who do you pick?
The highest ranked team? If Penn State falls to Ohio State, that would be USC.
The team who draws the most fans to the game? That’s probably USC, Penn State and Notre Dame.
Maybe you want TV ratings? Then Miami and Notre Dame are probably your pick.

So to sum it up, what are we hoping for? We want OSU to beat Penn State, but lose to Iowa. Since I can guarantee that both Pittsburgh and LSU will lose at least once more this season, we need someone to upset either Notre Dame or USC. If this all happens and Miami goes undefeated the rest of the way, then Miami will find themselves in the Fiesta Bowl.

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 5th, 2009 at 10:12 pm and is filed under Football. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.